It’s election day in the US and as Jena Friedman (@JenaFriedman) put it in 2018 “It feels like all of America is awaiting the results of a biopsy.” Many pundits have expressed that, in this election, democracy itself is on the ballot. That may be an overstatement (I certainly hope so) but the anti-democratic attitudes and actions of the Republican Party make such a statement plausible. In some ways, state and local elections may be more important than the elections for Representatives and Senators — because, while those elections won’t affect control of the Congress they could have a serious effect on future elections. Tim Michel, gubernatorial candidate in Wisconsin, for example. said if he is elected Republicans “will never lose another election” in that state. To be fair, perhaps he meant that he would be such a stellar governor that his coattails would be long and durable. On the other hand, he has refused to say that he would concede the election if he is defeated.
As everyone knows, historically, the sitting President’s party tends to lose Congressional seats in mid-term elections. This election, though, may be different. One significant factor is last summer’s supreme court ruling that discarded Roe vs. Wade which guaranteed a women’s right to choose to end a pregnancy. Reportedly, in response, voter registration for women and young people generally surged. Ending abortion has been a (stated) Republican goal for decades and the three Trump appointees to the Supreme Court became the wedge that allowed the demise of Roe. It may be that Republicans will pay a political price for taking away a Constitutional right from nearly half the nation. In addition, former president Trump is embroiled in numerous civil and criminal probes and, though his ardent supporters won’t waver, more circumspect people may decide to sit this one out even if they usually vote Republican.
For decades, I have enjoyed voting in person on election day. My polling place was a short pleasant walk from my home and because I’ve lived in the neighborhood for more than 30 years, I knew many of the people in line or working the polls. I voted by mail (well, I put my mail-in ballot in a drop box) in the last two elections because of the pandemic. I was looking forward to returning to in person voting but, checking my registration last week, I found that my polling place had changed; and, it was no longer walk-able. So, I went to the early voting place nearest me and cast my ballot. Early voting nationwide has exceeded levels in 2018 (the last midterm elections) and has largely comprised young and female voters. Republican candidates and their buffoon-in-chief have urged Republican voters to vote in person on election day because of the (no evidence required) worries about early and mail-in voting. The surge in voter registration and early voting is a good sign for Democrats.
Many states have provisions that disallow counting of early/mail-in ballots before election day. Because of that — and because Republicans have urged their voters to vote on election day — there is likely to be a “red mirage” this evening where, in many races, Republicans will seem to be winning handily. That lead will lessen as the evening (and probably the next) progresses and tallies of by mail and early voting are added to the counts. This is a well established phenomenon and — though Republicans are likely to call foul — indicates nothing nefarious.
Over 300 of the Republican candidates have bought into Trump’s “big lie” that the 2020 Presidential election was “stolen” from him. As with many conspiracy theories, this is believed even though no evidence validates it. In fact, for some, the dearth of evidence is itself proof that something has gone wrong.
Since the 2020 elections, Republican state legislatures have tightened voting rules in the states they control in the name of “election integrity.” As is repeatedly noted, there is no evidence that election fraud is a problem (I should note that any election fraud constitutes a problem but it is extremely unlikely to happen on a scale that affects the outcome of an election). Between gerrymandering and the efforts to suppress voting (“election integrity” rules) Republicans enjoy a significant advantage in many states in a normal election. But it seems clear that this is not an ordinary election. There are reasons to be hopeful.
Republican media has, for the last week or two, amplified polling that shows them winning. This is to hedge their bets in case Democrats prevail in some of the important (swing state) races that are likely to be very close. Undoubtedly, if their candidates fail they will cry foul and impress upon their voters that the race has been stolen (which many of their voters have been primed to believe will happen anyway).
I certainly hope the Democrats win enough races to keep control of the House of Representatives and the Senate. Republicans have advertised their plans to impeach President Biden and Vice-president Harris (reasons TBD), to gut Social Security and Medicare (just before I start enjoying those benefits!) and to enact a nation-wide abortion ban. They are unlikely to have sufficient numbers to accomplish these goals but there is some danger associated with their likely attempts. And, come the next election, Republican prospects may be much better if they win enough key races this time around.
If Democrats keep control, there will be much gnashing of teeth and vocal complaints from the Republican leaders. Let’s hope that their efforts to cast doubt on the integrity of key elections is clownishly entertaining and doesn’t become violent.
Even though I know that many races won’t be decided until tomorrow, or the next day or the next) I’ll be watching the returns on television tonight so I can wake tomorrow with a sense of where we are and what needs to happen going forward.