I read something a little while ago that suggested that, among Democratic leaders, there’s the notion that the Senate will reject any spending bill or continuing resolution that doesn’t also raise the debt ceiling. I’m glad they’re thinking that way.
Imagine that you are being robbed. The situation is bad enough but then imagine that you realize that the person robbing you is either too scared or too stupid to think rationally. If I have to be robbed, I’d prefer that the robber was calm and professional. I’m still going to be robbed but I’m much more likely to be breathing after being relieved of my money, phone and what not.
Polls show that Republicans are bearing and will bear the brunt of the blame for the government shutdown. However, Republican members of the House, the authors of this farce, seem convinced that they are doing the will of the people and that their cause will prevail in the court of public opinion. Delusional as this confidence seems, it may well be overly kind to paint the Republican strategy this way. There are other, more delusional, explanations for what the Republicans are doing but they don’t need to be spelled out here.
In a rational world, the Republicans would look at the current situation, read the polls and determine how to pull off a “declare victory and go home” tactic. In that rational world, Democrats could double down on this hand and declare that a continuing resolution that doesn’t also address the debt ceiling will be dead on arrival at the Senate door. A rational Republican House would then fold and complain about sleazy Democrat tactics. SOP.
Some pundits have compared the Republican malfeasance in the budget battle to a hostage situation. Imagine now that the hostage takers are sweating with fear or, worse, utterly insane. Playing hardball in negotiations only works if one can count on their opponents’ rational evaluation of the situation; if one can count on a decision that cutting one’s losses is preferable to utter defeat.
Democrats, emboldened by the polls that show that, by and large, anger over the budget impasse is largely aimed at Republicans, could well decide to “double down” and require that any spending bill include a provision raising the debt limit. And, in a rational world, it would be the smart, practical thing to do. After all, the requirement to raise the debt limit will emerge in less than two weeks; so, if the current shenanigans weren’t taking place, the Congress would (should) be working on that problem.
The problem is that the players aren’t necessarily rational. Even the sanest Republicans know that the Democrats really, really don’t want a default. Even if all of the blame devolves on Republicans. The economic chaos that would result from an actual default would likely dwarf the relatively small damage caused by brinksmanship in the 2011 debt ceiling tomfoolery. Regardless of where the blame lands, real damage will be done to the nation and, perhaps, the entire world economic system.
So, how brave are the Democrats? Looking at the record, one would conclude “not very.” Indeed, Republican antics have made it possible for the Democrats in Congress to coast through the term without much incentive to do anything positive for the nation. There are some Democrats (and, perhaps, some Republicans) who are committed to public service and the betterment of the country. However, most are self serving, smarmy parasites.
When I began writing this post, I wasn’t entirely behind the idea that the Democrats should demand that the spending situation and the debt ceiling situation be resolved in the same stroke. I was thinking that, because we can’t count on Republicans’ rational assessment of the situation, such a demand would make a US default much more likely. As I wrote, it occurred to me that if the hostage takers broker a deal that leaves them free to create another hostage situation in a few weeks, not much has been gained. It’s rather like making an agreement with the person robbing you: “if you take a little bit of cash but leave my credit cards and phone, I’ll give you my address and you can try to burgle my home in a few weeks.”
Consequently, I really think the best policy is for Democrats to insist that the debt ceiling be raised concurrent with funding the operation of the government. This is dangerous and has very high stakes. At the same time, the likelihood that this farce will be repeated in a few weeks is vanishingly shy of certain.