What I Think Maryland Thinks

Yesterday, the Baltimore Sun’s daily poll question (What Maryland Thinks) was:

Are the criminal charges against the six police officers involved in Freddie Gray’s death appropriate?

I predicted that the tally would yield the following percentages:

Yes 38%
No 54%
Not sure 8%

(313 votes cast)

I am (in a way) pleased to report that my prediction was very, very close. The poll results are:

Yes 36%
No 56%
Not sure 8%

(317 votes cast)

Not bad for a first try, eh?

Today’s poll question is a little trickier. The question itself is rather whimsical. Today’s question:

Which Marylander has a better shot of winning his party’s presidential nomination?

Dr. Ben Carson (Republican)
Gov. Martin O’Malley (Democrat)

There are a few things which make this prediction difficult. Ben Carson, a world renowned neurosurgeon (retired) is a bit of a folk hero in Baltimore and Maryland. Despite his brilliance in the operating room, Carson has buffooned badly several times in the run up to his announcement that he was running for president. On the other hand, his buffoonery (pro corporal punishment for children?) is well accepted among a certain demographic.

Martin O’Malley, despite a reasonably productive two terms as governor of Maryland, suffers from the impression that he is full of ego and hubris. Among Marylanders, even those nearly as left oriented as I am, his (as yet unannounced) candidacy is widely considered a joke. Some of this may be due to the presence of the Hillary Clinton Juggernaut — making the Democratic nomination seem like a done deal. On the other hand, should something derail Hillary’s nomination, Martin O’Malley may, in fact, be the candidate the Democrats coalesce around.

Bear in mind, this prediction doesn’t indicate which candidate(s) will win nomination or which candidates I would like to see nominated. In case you’re wondering what I think, Ben Carson won’t be nominated because 1) he is a black man and 2) he is a 7th Day Adventist. These two facts alienate two broad constituencies that comprise (in part) the Republican base. As I said above, I think that Hillary is a shoe in for the nomination unless some of the shit barrage that is being and will be thrown at her sticks. If that happens, I think O’Malley may be the next best bet.

It’s probably not surprising that I would absolutely love it if Bernie Sanders was nominated. That won’t happen, though, because he frightens the hell out of Wall Street and the 1%. Thus, he is described in the media as a ‘kook’. On the other hand, he raised $1.5 million in the day following his announcement from mostly small donors. So, he has popular appeal. But the paymasters of the Democratic Party won’t permit a Sanders nomination.

That said, my prediction for today’s poll results:

Which Marylander has a better shot of winning his party’s presidential nomination?

Dr. Ben Carson (Republican) 78%
Gov. Martin O’Malley 22%

with 119 votes cast.

If you want to vote, you can do so at this link.

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